City Of Troy
The sensational City Of Troy put his 2,000 Guineas flop well behind him when running out an emphatic winner of the Derby at Epsom 35 days ago, and he will prove exceptionally difficult to beat despite this drop two furlongs in distance.
Aidan O’Brien’s runner was outstanding as a two-year-old, and there were no signs of the Newmarket 2,000 Guineas distress when bursting through the line at Epsom and taking an age to pull up. On that evidence, some may now suggest the move back in distance is a negative. However, it seems he can do it all.
White Birch
White Birch has had a coming of age in his four-year-old season. John Joseph Murphy’s runner fell short of the top level last season, but he is unbeaten this year, including an emphatic victory at the Curragh over Auguste Rodin when landing the Group 1 Tattersalls Gold Cup. The runner-up boosted that form by winning Royal Ascot’s Prince Of Wales’s Stakes Group 1, but the strength of that form can be questioned to a degree.
Dancing Gemini
Dancing Gemini was a non-stayer in the Derby when only sixth behind City Of Troy, but he will be much better suited to this 1m2f test, and he is not easily dismissed despite having plenty to find with the favourite. He had shaped with promise when second in the French 2,000 Guineas over 1m, and he caught the eye from an unpromising position at Epsom.
Ghostwriter
Fourth in 2,000 Guineas on seasonal return and filed the same spot in the French Derby and showed he has a tremendous amount of ability. However, the reality of this task is stiffer than both of those, and he is flying too high here.
Luxembourg
It would be a big surprise if Aidan O’Brien ran any other horse in this race – something he has not done since 2019 when attempting to defeat the excellent Enable. O’Brien holds all the aces in this pack, so it would be unconventional for the trainer to tempt fate.
Al Riffa
He offered plenty as a two-year-old, landing the Group 1 National Stakes at the Curragh and then finished strongly as a three-year-old behind the smart Arc winner Ace Impact in the Group 2 Prix Guillaume d’Ornano. The form of his seasonal debut when a narrow fourth in France would give him minor each-way claims, but he will lack the pace to be competitive if the ground is on the faster side of good.
Jayarebe
The three-year-old arrives on the back of a career-best after scoring at Royal Ascot in the Group 3 Hampton Court, but he was fortunate to hold on there. This is a much, much tougher assignment, and he looks out of his depth on all known form.
Continuous
Promising reappearance at Royal Ascot and has big targets ahead this season, but it would be surprising if this was one of them.
Stay Alert
Well held seven days ago in the Fillies Group 1 Pretty Polly Stakes at the Curragh and now has a sighter at the colts and geldings and looks well out of her depth.
Hans Andersen
Tough to make a strong case on his last three starts, having been beaten a combined distance of 61 lengths and another Aidan O’Brien runner unlikely to make the starting lineup.
Sea The Fire
She has plenty of ability, but it is impossible to fancy her on these terms.
Eclipse Stakes Verdict
Punters should be aware that the Sportsbook offers 1/4 odds two places for each-way bets (ante-post), indicating that they expect less than eight runners on race day.
The Betfair traders have made it tempting to back White Birch each way at 9/2. He looks like the most obvious and only bet in this current market, and he is sure to be more like 5/2 on the day should he line up, so if you like him for this, then now is perhaps the time to get involved. However, the traders have made it clear who they fancy by going the shortest price for City Of Troy at 2/5, and I don’t blame them – we have seen this movie before, year after year.
It would be shocking if this weren’t fought out between Aidan O’Brien’s City Of Troy and the four-year-old White Birch, but the firm preference is for the former, who has the world at his hoofs and can land another renewal for his excellent trainer. The lack of pace in the race at this stage must be a concern for White Birch, who relishes a solid clip to aim at, but the 10 lb weight-for-age allowance may be too much of a gap for White Birch to bridge.
City Of Troy is potentially a superstar, and while White Birch is an excellent and worthy rival, if they both turn up in full force, there’s only one winner in my book, although I don’t expect it to be straightforward. Getting stuck in at 2/5 is not my style, though, so I make it clear I won’t be backing him myself, and I will hope to enjoy the clash of the generations from trackside on Saturday.
Dancing Gemini can fill the frame and make the tricast of the remainder.
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