However, Under Control – 7/2 heads the market in the Morebattle Hurdle and holds excellent claims.
She was Betfair Hurdle NAP a few weeks ago at Newbury but took an almighty drift before being withdrawn on what was described as heavy ground. That was no issue for her on the balance of her profile, but Nicky Henderson seems to think she is best on a sound surface.
If he is correct, the dry weather forecast in Scotland is a big positive for her this weekend as she moves up North to take on lesser opposition in the hunt for the £100k bonus with the County Hurdle double seemingly on the agender.
Nicky Henderson isn’t a regular visitor to the Scottish venue – he has sent up six in the last five years, and three have won, including We Had A Dream in this race in 2019. His overall strike rate at this venue is a whopping 47%, but his horses are typically well-found in the market come SP.
That’s a good enough reason to take the plunge before final declarations, and given her connections, she could easily go off shorter than the owners, The Shunter ( 5/2 ), did three years ago when winning this race.
Under Control is a filly firmly on the upgrade, and her stand-out piece of form is her Sandown victory over subsequent Greatwood Hurdle and Betfair Hurdle winner Iberico Lord. That race has produced its fair share of winners, but the ease with which she went through it caught the eye.
She pulled the arms off Nico De Boinville for much of the race and hit the front too soon, only to get lonely once out in front and was value for much more.
She was a big drifter on seasonal return at Newbury in the Gerry Fielden but still travelled like the best horse in the race. Still, it wasn’t her true running, and her lines of form prove that. It was much more like it at Doncaster when splitting Ashroe Diamond and the well-supported Gala Marceau, and her powerful finishing effort suggests there’s lots more to come yet.
The fifth, Stainsby Girl, has since boosted that form by beating You Wear It Well in a Listed Haydock event next time. Gala Marceau ran below par subsequently, but the weight of support she had at Doncaster means it’s of little concern for the form.
With all due respect to the Northern horses, they shouldn’t be able to live with Under Control on a going day and a big performance is inbound.
A few catch the eye at bigger prices. I am sure Anyharminasking didn’t stay the two and a half miles at Doncaster and Newbury the last twice, and his second to Nemean Lion at Ffos Las in the Welsh Champion Hurdle looks strong form now. I also believe that he doesn’t like Cheltenham, but this sharp track may not be ideal either. Still, should he remain at the final declaration stage, he is one to consider.
I have Brucio doing a good time at Leopardstown at the Dublin Racing Festival, but a 16-pound higher rating is not doing her any favours.
Therefore, the biggest threat is likely from Benson, who hinted at a return to form at Musselburgh last time and won this race last year with a fast-finishing flurry. Rewired is going the right way, but this is a big ask, and Ballygeary is not one to give up on before the season is out.
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